DON'T expect a new Chinese baby boom, experts say, despite the first easing of the country's controversial one-child policy in three decades.
Some 15 million to 20 million Chinese parents will be allowed to have a second child after the government announced Friday that couples where one partner has no siblings can have two children. But the easing of the policy is so incremental that demographers are not anticipating an influx of newborn babies.
"A baby boom can be safely ruled out," said Wang Feng, professor of sociology at the University of California Irvine.
Wang noted that although Chinese couples where both parents have no siblings have for some time been allowed to have a second child, many have elected to have only one.
"Young people's reproductive desires have changed," he said.
Xia Gaolong and his wife are among those who will be allowed to have a second child as a result of the new policy, but he said he has no intention of giving his 10-year-old son a sibling.
Xia, who runs a tour bus business in the thriving city of Nanjing in eastern China, said the high cost of living and fierce competition for schools and jobs would deter him from bringing another child into the world.
"No way will I have another child," said Xia, who is in his late 30s. "There are so many pressures in life in today's society, and our children will only face more pressures."
Experts estimate that the new rules allowing couples where one partner is an only child to have a second baby will result in 1 million to 2 million extra births per year in the first few years, on top of the 16 million babies born annually in China.
Cai Rong, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said the figure could be even lower because of the growing acceptance of small families.
In an unscientific survey on the Chinese-language social media platform Sina Weibo, more than 60 per cent of those who self-identified as being eligible for the new exemption from the one-child limit said they would have a second child.
"A second child is absolutely necessary, and we thank the new policy," said May Zha, 34, of Beijing, the mother of a 3-year-old.
Zha said that her husband is an only child, making the couple eligible for the new exemption, and that they plan to have another baby as soon as possible. "Time does not wait," she said.
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